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Tilly's (Tilly's) Beneish M-Score : -3.63 (As of Apr. 29, 2024)


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What is Tilly's Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.63 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Tilly's's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TLYS' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.69   Med: -2.65   Max: -1.89
Current: -3.63

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Tilly's was -1.89. The lowest was -3.69. And the median was -2.65.


Tilly's Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Tilly's's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Tilly's Beneish M-Score Chart

Tilly's Annual Data
Trend Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.07 -2.27 -1.89 -2.12 -3.63

Tilly's Quarterly Data
Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.12 -1.71 -2.69 -2.82 -3.63

Competitive Comparison of Tilly's's Beneish M-Score

For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Tilly's's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Tilly's's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Tilly's's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Tilly's's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Tilly's Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Tilly's for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.5266+0.528 * 1.1343+0.404 * 0.1792+0.892 * 0.9268+0.115 * 1.0501
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1076+4.679 * -0.076728-0.327 * 1.0547
=-3.63

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jan24) TTM:Last Year (Jan23) TTM:
Total Receivables was $9.7 Mil.
Revenue was 173.02 + 166.475 + 159.951 + 123.637 = $623.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 46.684 + 48.719 + 44.316 + 25.938 = $165.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $176.1 Mil.
Total Assets was $429.5 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $251.9 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $12.8 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $196.6 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $104.6 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $179.8 Mil.
Net Income was -20.552 + -0.847 + -1.125 + -11.968 = $-34.5 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 1.574 + 1.341 + 1.22 + 1.064 = $5.2 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 3.725 + -6.559 + 12.296 + -16.195 = $-6.7 Mil.
Total Receivables was $19.8 Mil.
Revenue was 180.35 + 177.847 + 168.308 + 145.775 = $672.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was 52.368 + 54.583 + 51.982 + 43.815 = $202.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $202.4 Mil.
Total Assets was $475.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $263.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $14.1 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $191.6 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $108.3 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $190.3 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(9.677 / 623.083) / (19.829 / 672.28)
=0.015531 / 0.029495
=0.5266

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(202.748 / 672.28) / (165.657 / 623.083)
=0.301583 / 0.265867
=1.1343

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (176.059 + 251.888) / 429.545) / (1 - (202.398 + 263.48) / 475.752)
=0.00372 / 0.020755
=0.1792

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=623.083 / 672.28
=0.9268

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(14.134 / (14.134 + 263.48)) / (12.834 / (12.834 + 251.888))
=0.050912 / 0.048481
=1.0501

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(196.639 / 623.083) / (191.561 / 672.28)
=0.31559 / 0.284942
=1.1076

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((179.798 + 104.557) / 429.545) / ((190.301 + 108.304) / 475.752)
=0.661991 / 0.627648
=1.0547

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-34.492 - 5.199 - -6.733) / 429.545
=-0.076728

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Tilly's has a M-score of -3.63 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Tilly's Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Tilly's (Tilly's) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10 Whatney, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618
Tilly's Inc works as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men, young women, boys, and girls. It offers an unparalleled selection of relevant brands, styles, colors, sizes, and price points. It delivers branded fashion, and core styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses. It also provides backpacks, hats, sunglasses, headphones, handbags, watches, and jewelry. The company markets its products under the brand names of Vans, RVCA, Adidas, Nike SB, and Hurley among others. It operates its stores in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers, street-front locations, and also through e-commerce.
Executives
Pleasant Lake Onshore Feeder Fund Lp 10 percent owner 100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Seth R Johnson director
Janet Kerr director 50 CASTILIAN DR, GOLETA CA 93117
Michael Henry officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Laura Janney officer: SEE REMARKS C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Robert Simon Goodwin officer: See Remarks C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Jonathon David Kosoff officer: Chief Digital Officer C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Hezy Shaked director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Pleasant Lake Partners Llc 10 percent owner 100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Fund 1 Investments, Llc 10 percent owner 100 CARR 115, UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Edmond Thomas director, officer: President and CEO C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Bernard Zeichner director C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Teresa Luna Aragones director C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Erin Melissa Chin director C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Tricia D Smith officer: EVP CMO C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS INC, 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA X1 19112